Shoplifting Is Down 12.4% But Retail Crime Is Becoming More Complex

Shoplifting incidents declined 12.4% in 2025, according to the NRF's 2026 retail theft study. While that is encouraging, other forms of retail crime and fraud are increasing, creating new challenges for retailers, asset protection teams, law enforcement, and prosecutors.

Phone scams increased 69%. Loyalty fraud rose 51%. Gift card fraud increased 42%. Organized retail crime continues to affect 40% of retailers, while cargo theft operations increasingly cross stores, markets, and state lines.

The takeaway is not that progress against shoplifting doesn't matter. It does.

But retail crime isn't simply disappearing. It's becoming more complex.

For retailers, that raises an important question: Is detecting and reporting retail crime enough to create meaningful accountability?

What Is the Retail Crime Accountability Gap?

The retail crime accountability gap is the space between identifying and reporting an incident and ensuring the case receives the follow-through necessary to move through the legal system.

Retailers have invested heavily in cameras, reporting tools, apprehension programs, incident management platforms, and other loss prevention technologies.

These investments can help teams identify, document, and report retail theft.

But what happens after an incident is reported?

A retailer may receive a police case number or know that an offender was apprehended, yet still have limited visibility into questions such as:

• Has the case been filed?
• Has a prosecutor been assigned?
• Was additional evidence requested?
• Did someone appear in court on behalf of the retailer?
• Were related incidents or repeat offenses connected?
• What was the final case outcome?

For multi-location retailers, answering those questions consistently across different jurisdictions can be difficult.

Detection can identify the problem.

Accountability requires continued follow-through.

Why Does Retail Crime Prosecution Vary by Location?

Retail crime prosecution can vary significantly by jurisdiction because state laws are implemented within local legal systems.

The law may be statewide, but prosecution is intensely local.

How a retail theft or organized retail crime case progresses may depend on the jurisdiction, prosecutor, courtroom, available resources, caseload, local procedures, and enforcement priorities.

For loss prevention and asset protection teams operating across multiple states, counties, and cities, that creates significant complexity.

The same retailer may encounter very different processes from one market to another.

Understanding those differences—and maintaining local coordination with law enforcement and prosecutors—can therefore become an important part of a retailer's broader retail crime strategy.

What Happens After a Retail Theft Arrest?

An arrest is an important step in a retail crime case, but it does not guarantee that the case will result in prosecution or another meaningful outcome.

After an arrest, evidence may need to be provided or preserved. Additional incidents may need to be connected. Witnesses may need to participate. Prosecutors may need additional information. Court appearances may occur weeks or months later.

Without continued visibility and coordination, retailers can lose track of what happens as a case progresses through the judicial system.

This is especially challenging when asset protection teams are managing cases across dozens—or hundreds—of stores and jurisdictions.

That's why the period after an arrest can be just as important as what happens before it.

What Does Research Say About Retail Crime Accountability?

Independent research from the Loss Prevention Research Council (LPRC) provides insight into what can happen when retail crime cases receive structured post-incident support.

Researchers analyzed nearly 400 retail crime cases before and after ALTO implementation.

The analysis found a significant increase in cases reaching full court processing after implementation, providing evidence that continued case support can influence how far retail crime cases progress through the judicial process.

The research highlights an important distinction between apprehension and accountability:

An arrest is not an outcome.

For retailers, the ultimate question is what happens next.

Does the case have the evidence, visibility, coordination, and continued support necessary to move through the legal system?

Why Does Post-Incident Case Management Matter for Retailers?

Post-incident case management helps maintain continuity between the initial retail crime incident and the legal process that follows.

This can include:

• Maintaining visibility into case progression
• Coordinating information with law enforcement and prosecutors
• Supporting evidence collection and preservation
• Connecting repeat offenses and related incidents
• Supporting retailer participation throughout the judicial process
• Tracking case outcomes

For retailers operating across multiple markets, this type of support can also help address the complexity created by different local processes and prosecution environments.

The goal is not simply to generate more police reports or arrests.

The goal is to help incidents that warrant prosecution continue moving toward an appropriate legal outcome.

How Can Retailers Close the Accountability Gap?

Closing the retail crime accountability gap requires connecting incident reporting, investigation, local collaboration, and legal follow-through.

For multi-location retailers, that means looking beyond individual incidents and asking broader questions:

Where are repeat offenders creating the greatest disruption?

Which markets generate the highest volume of incidents?

Where does visibility disappear after an incident is reported?

Where are cases struggling to progress?

And where could stronger post-incident support make the greatest difference?

Answering those questions can help retailers determine where additional accountability resources may have the greatest impact rather than treating every market exactly the same.

Detection Is the Start. Accountability Is What Makes the Difference.

Retail crime is evolving, and the strategies used to address it must evolve with it.

Technology, reporting systems, cameras, and apprehension programs remain important components of retail asset protection.

But detection alone does not determine what ultimately happens to a case.

Retailers also need visibility, local knowledge, coordination, and consistent follow-through after an incident occurs.

Because an arrest is not the finish line. It's where accountability begins.

ALTO helps retailers and restaurants bridge the gap between incident reporting and legal accountability through local collaboration, case follow-through, and visibility into what happens after an incident.